Bearish cases for macro outlook
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This paper outlines the cyclical (six to 12 months) bearish outlook for assets within BCA Research's team.

The group foresees a further deterioration in activity or a delayed recovery, additional downside in stocks and risk assets, outperformance of defensives relative to cyclicals, low safe-haven yields, and a generally stronger US dollar.

The presenters outlined their arguments for the bearish camp in the roundtable discussion reproduced in this paper.

The panel comprised:

  • Anastasios Avgeriou, U.S. equity strategist, BCA Research.
  • Arthur Budaghyan, chief emerging market strategist, BCA Research.
  • Dhaval Joshi, chief European investment strategist, BCA Research.
The conversation was moderated by Mathieu Savary, BCA Research's bank credit analyst strategist. [Information current as at July 2019.]

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