This paper outlines the cyclical (six to 12 months) bearish outlook for assets within BCA Research's team.
The group foresees a further deterioration in activity or a delayed recovery, additional downside in stocks and risk assets, outperformance of defensives relative to cyclicals, low safe-haven yields, and a generally stronger US dollar.
The presenters outlined their arguments for the bearish camp in the roundtable discussion reproduced in this paper.
The panel comprised:
The conversation was moderated by Mathieu Savary, BCA Research's bank credit analyst strategist. [Information current as at July 2019.]
- Anastasios Avgeriou, U.S. equity strategist, BCA Research.
- Arthur Budaghyan, chief emerging market strategist, BCA Research.
- Dhaval Joshi, chief European investment strategist, BCA Research.